Scientists are closely monitoring a space rock called asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024.
What the study says about the asteroid
At first, experts feared it might strike Earth, but new observations ruled that out. However, the danger has not disappeared. The study shows that there is still a 4% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon on 22 December 2032.
The asteroid is about 60 metres wide (roughly the size of a small building), based on measurements taken by the James Webb Telescope in March 2025 . While this might sound small compared to Earth, scientists call it a “city killer” because an object of this size could flatten an entire city if it struck our planet.
To prepare, space agencies have been studying different mission options.
Researchers say deflecting the asteroid (pushing it slightly off course) seems difficult. Instead, they are exploring “robust disruption”, which means breaking it into smaller, less dangerous pieces.
This could be done with kinetic impactors (slamming a spacecraft into it at high speed) or, more seriously, with nuclear explosive devices detonated near the asteroid.
What would happen on Earth if the asteroid struck the Moon?
A direct hit on the Moon would not be harmless for us. When a big asteroid crashes into the lunar surface, it throws huge amounts of debris into space. Studies suggest that if 2024 YR4 smashes into the Moon, the resulting ejecta (rock fragments and dust) could increase the amount of micrometeoroid debris near Earth by up to 1000 times the normal background levels.
This sudden spike would be dangerous for astronauts in orbit and for satellites, which could be damaged or destroyed by high-speed particles.
It might also disrupt communication systems, navigation satellites, and even planned lunar missions.
The authors of the study warn that “a crash that close to Earth would almost certainly affect us.”
While the asteroid would not directly hit our planet, the side effects could be severe.
For now, the probability remains low, and more observations in 2026 and 2028 will give scientists a clearer picture of whether this lunar collision will really happen .