NASA has revised its projections for asteroid 2024 YR4, confirming that it no longer poses a significant threat to Earth in 2032 or the foreseeable future.
NASA provides update on near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4
Initial calculations suggested a small but noteworthy possibility of impact on 22 December 2032.
However, after additional observations and refined trajectory models, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) now state that the asteroid will pass at a safe distance.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on 27 January 2025, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. As more data became available, experts at NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) tracked its trajectory closely, using updated models to predict its movement.
Their latest analysis confirms that the asteroid will not pose an impact risk for at least the next 100 years.
While concerns about an Earth impact have been ruled out, NASA scientists have noted a small possibility—currently estimated at 1.7%—that asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on 22 December 2032.
The agency plans to continue monitoring its path, with upcoming observations scheduled using the James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025 to gather more information about the asteroid’s size and composition.
Despite the initial alarm, NASA made it clear that 2024 YR4 provided a valuable case study for planetary defence efforts.
The event allowed scientists to refine impact prediction models and test emergency response strategies. These exercises are critical in ensuring readiness for future potential threats from near-Earth objects.
The latest updates on all potentially hazardous asteroids will remain available on NASA’s automated Sentry system, which continuously assesses impact risks based on new observational data.
While 2024 YR4 is no longer a concern, NASA and its partner institutions continue to track other space objects that may come close to Earth in the future.
