NASA’s latest update on asteroid 2024 YR4 has raised concerns, as the likelihood of an impact in 2032 has increased to 3.1%, making it the highest-risk asteroid ever recorded.
NASA confirms the latest observations on asteroid 2024 YR4
The new estimate marks a significant jump from previous assessments, which initially placed the risk at 1% in January before gradually increasing over the past few weeks.
According to NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4 is classified as a near-Earth asteroid with an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.
While relatively small compared to extinction-level asteroids, its size is still large enough to cause significant devastation if it were to strike Earth.
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth and will soon disappear from view by April.
Scientists are working urgently to gather as much data as possible, as they won’t be able to observe it again until 2028. At that point, it may be too late to prepare a defensive response if the threat remains.
NASA has formally notified US government agencies, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, and the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs under international planetary defence protocols. More observations are expected to refine the risk assessment in the coming months.
What exactly does this mean?
While a 3.1% probability might seem low, it is significantly higher than the usual odds assigned to potential impact asteroids. Most near-Earth objects are ruled out as threats within weeks or months of discovery, but 2024 YR4’s probability has been steadily increasing, making it a priority for planetary defence experts.
If the asteroid were to impact Earth on its predicted risk date of 22 December 2032, the consequences would depend on where it lands. A direct hit over land could flatten cities, while an ocean impact could trigger massive tsunamis.
However, the most likely outcome is that further calculations will narrow the impact probability, potentially eliminating the risk altogether.
2024 YR4 was first spotted by ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) in Chile on 27 January 2025. ATLAS, managed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy, is part of NASA’s early-warning network for planetary threats.
As scientists continue to track its orbit, they stress that the impact probability could still decrease with better measurements. NASA has also indicated that it is exploring potential mitigation strategies, should the risk remain elevated in the coming years.
For now, all eyes remain on NASA’s automated Sentry system, which will continue to update the asteroid’s trajectory and risk assessment as new data becomes available.
