South Africa enters the first observational week of Basic Fuel Price (BFP) tracking for December 2025, and early readings indicate a mixed outlook for motorists.
While petrol appears relatively stable after November’s drop, diesel shows signs of renewed strain from global market dynamics.
Motorists received some relief this month when the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announced that petrol prices had dropped by 51 cents per litre and diesel by as much as 21 cents per litre, effective from Wednesday, 5 November 2025.
Petrol 95 now costs R21.12 per litre inland and around R20.29 at the coast, while diesel 0.005% sells for roughly R19.20 per litre.
Early BFP figures released on Friday, 7 November 2025, show that the benchmark price for petrol 95 sits at R0.99 per litre, with an under-recovery of R0.37.
This suggests a mild upward adjustment could be on the horizon if current trends persist.
For diesel, the under-recovery is deeper at R0.96 for 0.05% sulphur and R1.12 for 0.005% sulphur, signalling potential increases unless market conditions improve.
The data indicates that the average rand-to-dollar exchange rate, recorded at R17.35/$ for the period ending Friday, 7 November 2025, remains relatively stable compared to last month.
However, analysts warn that volatility in global crude oil prices could reverse gains from the stronger rand, especially if Brent crude continues its upward trajectory.
In the week’s breakdown, the under-recovery on petrol stems largely from fluctuations in international product prices rather than exchange rate pressures.
The movement in international petrol prices contributed a positive 0.62 cents to the BFP, while the exchange rate movement subtracted R0.05 cents.
This implies that global oil price adjustments, rather than domestic currency shifts, are now the key factor influencing early December projections.
Diesel’s sharper under-recovery is attributed to heightened demand from European winter markets, compounded by ongoing tensions in major shipping corridors affecting supply costs.
Illuminating paraffin, meanwhile, continues to show a stable price pattern, with a BFP of 1,122.65 SA cents per litre and a relatively minor under-recovery of 88.52 cents.
If the current trend holds, petrol prices in December 2025 are likely to remain near November levels, while diesel users may face a moderate increase.
Much will depend on how the rand performs against the dollar and whether crude oil markets stabilise before the month-end review by the Central Energy Fund.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will finalise December’s official fuel price adjustments in the final week of November, with changes expected to take effect on Wednesday, 3 December 2025.
