According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data for the period ending 25 August 2025, petrol price recoveries — which measure the gap between what South Africans are currently paying at the pumps and what it actually costs to bring fuel into the country — are showing mixed results.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 25 August 2025
Here’s the latest outlook on the price adjustments this week:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 25/08/2025 | Adjustment on 18/08/2025 | Adjustment on 11/08/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.04 | -R0.04 | +R0.14 | +R0.06 |
| Petrol 93 | +R0.04 | +R0.02 | +R0.26 | +R0.14 |
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.56 | +R0.70 | +R1.09 | +R0.70 |
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.57 | +R0.69 | +R1.11 | +R0.70 |
In simple terms, an over-recovery means consumers are paying a little more than the actual import cost of fuel, so a price drop is likely. An under-recovery means the opposite: prices at the pump are too low, and an increase could be on the way.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in September 2025?
This week’s snapshot suggests different outcomes for different fuels heading into September:
- Petrol 95 is in under-recovery, which means the current pump price is too low compared to import costs. If this continues, motorists may face a slight increase in 95 octane petrol prices for September.
- Petrol 93 is in a small over-recovery, suggesting that its price could either remain stable or see a very slight cut.
- Diesel (both grades) and paraffin are in strong over-recovery, indicating that prices for these fuels are likely to drop significantly in September, offering relief to households and businesses that rely on them.
Compared to last week’s forecast (18 August 2025), the latest figures show:
- Petrol 95 has shifted from over-recovery into a slight under-recovery, a reversal that strengthens the case for an increase.
- Petrol 93’s position has weakened but still remains in positive territory.
- Diesel and paraffin remain in a firm over-recovery, consistent with previous weeks, confirming a trend towards potential cuts.
Main contributing factors this week
Fuel prices in South Africa are influenced by two major elements:
- International oil prices – Brent crude was trading around US$67.76 per barrel on 25 August, up slightly due to tensions in Eastern Europe after Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. This raised fears of supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher.
- Rand/US dollar exchange rate – The value of the rand against the dollar affects how much it costs South Africa to import oil. A weaker rand means higher import costs, while a stronger rand softens them.
This week, slightly stronger oil prices added pressure on petrol, while the rand’s relative stability helped keep diesel and paraffin costs lower than pump prices, explaining the over-recoveries.
How accurate is the CEF data?
The CEF’s daily over/(under) recovery data gives an early forecast of how prices might move, but it is not the final word. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) looks at the average daily recoveries across the whole month before confirming official price adjustments.
Other factors — such as government taxes and levies, including the R0.16 per litre fuel levy introduced in June 2025— also affect the final pump price. This means even when recoveries suggest a decrease, the levy will still be added before motorists see the final price.