Here is the third weekly forecast for October 2025, based on data published by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) on Monday, 22 September 2025.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 22 September 2025
According to the CEF’s latest report, the current daily average over/(under) recovery rates, measured in cents per litre (c/l), are:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 29/09/2025 | Adjustment on 22/09/2025 | Adjustment on 15/09/2025 | Adjustment on 08/09/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.36 | -R0.06 | -R0.11 | ||
| Petrol 93 | +R0.43 | +R0.03 | -R0.01 | ||
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.30 | +R0.13 | -R0.05 | ||
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.25 | +R0.04 | -R0.04 |
All major fuel types are reflecting continued over-recovery, which is a positive sign that fuel price cuts are still on the table for October 2025.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in October 2025?
1. BFL price movements:
The Basic Fuel Price (BFL), which is based on the international price of refined fuels (not crude oil directly), continues to decrease. This means the fuel that South Africa buys from global suppliers is currently cheaper than the average price used to set this month’s pump prices.
As a result, this week’s CEF data shows:
- Petrol recoveries increased by 11.3 c/l (for 95 ULP) and 15.1 c/l (for 93 ULP) compared to last week.
- Diesel recoveries also rose sharply, by roughly 14 c/l week-on-week.
- Illuminating paraffin gained about 6.3 c/l in over-recovery.
This increase in over-recoveries is a strong signal that fuel price cuts in October will be larger than previously expected, if trends continue.
2. Comparison to last week’s forecast:
When compared to the first forecast (15 September 2025):
| Fuel Type | 15 Sep Forecast | 22 Sep Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 ULP | +24.723 c/l | +35.988 c/l | ▲ 11.265 c/l |
| Petrol 93 ULP | +27.372 c/l | +42.522 c/l | ▲ 15.150 c/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | +15.897 c/l | +29.874 c/l | ▲ 13.977 c/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | +12.337 c/l | +25.155 c/l | ▲ 12.818 c/l |
| Paraffin | +16.049 c/l | +22.323 c/l | ▲ 6.274 c/l |
All fuels show stronger over-recoveries this week compared to last week’s forecast, with diesel seeing the most substantial week-on-week gains.
3. Key factors behind this week’s movement:
- Falling global oil prices: Brent Crude prices have pulled back to around $91.60 per barrel (as of the latest update), after nearing $95 earlier in September. Lower oil prices reduce the cost of refining fuels, bringing down the BFL.
- Steady rand-dollar exchange rate: The rand has remained relatively stable against the dollar, averaging around R18.90–R19.10/$ during the period. This helped shield South Africa from currency-driven import cost increases.
- Seasonal demand shifts: International demand for fuel softens slightly after the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, impacting global fuel trade and easing pressure on prices.
- No major shocks: There were no major geopolitical disruptions this week impacting fuel logistics, keeping freight and premiums under control.
How reliable is CEF data in predicting actual fuel price changes?
The CEF’s daily snapshots are a strong indicator of where fuel prices are heading — but they are not the final say.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) calculates the official price using:
- The average of all daily over/(under) recoveries across the month, not just the latest data
- Adjustments for levies (like the temporary 16c fuel levy still active from 4 June 2025)
- International freight premiums and slate levy changes
- Any taxes or fuel pricing structure updates
So while the latest +36c over-recovery for 95 ULP is promising, the final adjustment for October will likely be slightly lower, especially after factoring in the reinstatement of the 16c levy.
