Here’s a comprehensive petrol price forecast for the week based on data from the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) Daily Fuel Price Update for Monday, 8 September 2025.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 8 September 2025
According to the CEF’s latest data, here are the daily over/(under) recoveries per fuel type:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 29/09/2025 | Adjustment on 22/09/2025 | Adjustment on 15/09/2025 | Adjustment on 08/09/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R0.11 | ||||
| Petrol 93 | -R0.01 | ||||
| Diesel 0.05% | -R0.05 | ||||
| Diesel 0.005% | -R0.04 |
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in October 2025?
1. BFL Price Movements:
Brent Crude Oil prices — the global benchmark — have experienced upward momentum during this period. This was due to a combination of supply-side tensions and a stronger global demand outlook, pushing oil prices closer to the US$90 per barrel mark.
As a result, the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) — a core component in calculating pump prices — has increased. This directly contributes to the under-recoveries observed in this week’s report.
2. Comparison to Last Week’s Forecast:
When compared to the third forecast for September (dated 25 August 2025), this week’s figures indicate a continued deterioration in under-recoveries:
- Petrol: Increased under-recoveries by approximately 40–50c/l
- Diesel: Widened by more than 50c/l
This shows that international product prices (especially petrol and diesel) have risen significantly, and the rand/dollar exchange rate has either worsened or not improved enough to offset these price hikes.
3. Key Factors Behind This Week’s Movement:
- Rising Oil Prices: Geopolitical risk in the Middle East and tight OPEC+ output have lifted crude prices.
- Weaker Rand: The local currency continues to be volatile, trading above R19.00/USD during this period, further compounding upward pressure on fuel costs.
- Refined Product Prices: Diesel and petrol prices in international markets have remained high due to strong post-summer demand in the northern hemisphere and planned refinery maintenance.
4. CEF Forecast Accuracy and Final Adjustments:
The CEF’s data provides a rolling average of daily price differences between actual costs and what motorists pay at the pump.
While these numbers are a strong indication of future price movements, they do not account for government decisions, such as:
- Slate Levy Adjustments
- Fuel Tax Adjustments
- Transport and Storage Costs
- Retail Margin Changes
For example, the R0.16 Fuel Levy, implemented from 4 June 2025, continues to be a direct upward pressure on fuel prices — and will be baked into final October adjustments, regardless of market recovery.