The Central Energy Fund’s snapshot of the basic fuel price (BFP) movement — the average price South Africa pays for importing fuel — suggests an over-recovery across all fuel types, meaning the BFP is lower than what consumers are currently paying at the pump.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 13 October 2025
Here’s a breakdown:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 27/10/2025 | Adjustment on 20/10/2025 | Adjustment on 13/10/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.67 | |||
| Petrol 93 | +R0.72 | |||
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.39 | |||
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.38 |
This over-recovery means that if these trends hold, motorists could be paying less per litre at the start of November.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in November 2025?
1. BFP price movements: Continued downtrend
The basic fuel price continued to drop this past week, as seen in the positive over-recovery figures above. When fuel is over-recovered, it means the amount South Africa is paying for fuel (based on global oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate) is lower than the current regulated retail price. This is generally a strong signal for a price cut.
Compared to last week’s forecast (6 October 2025):
- Petrol 93 over-recovery improved by over 20 cents.
- Petrol 95 followed a similar trajectory.
- Both diesel grades also registered stronger over-recoveries week-on-week.Illuminating paraffin moved into deeper over-recovery territory.
This week-on-week improvement suggests a larger projected price decrease for November than what was forecast in the first week of October.
2. Why are fuel prices going down this week?
Two main factors explain the drop:
a. International Oil Product Prices Dropped
Global demand concerns — particularly slowing consumption forecasts in China and Europe — have put downward pressure on international oil prices.
Brent crude fell from around $87.31 per barrel at the start of the month to under $85 per barrel by 13 October. Lower oil prices mean it costs less to import refined fuel products, which reduces the BFP.
b. Rand Strengthened Slightly
The rand to dollar exchange rate has remained relatively stable, with minor appreciation in favour of the rand during the week under review.
A stronger rand means importing fuel becomes cheaper, adding to the over-recovery.
3. How accurate is the CEF data and what else affects the final fuel price?
CEF publishes daily snapshots of over/under-recoveries based on:
- International oil product prices (not crude oil directly, but petrol, diesel, and paraffin),
- The ZAR/USD exchange rate, and
- Freight and insurance costs associated with importing fuel.
However, the final petrol price adjustments — made by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) — are based on the monthly average of these values, not the daily figures. This means:
- Daily over-recoveries are indicative, not definitive.
- If trends shift in the second half of October — for example, if oil prices spike due to geopolitical tensions — the projected price drop could be wiped out or reduced.
Other factors considered by DMRE when finalising petrol prices:
- Slate levy (used to balance prior under-recoveries),
- Retail and wholesale margins (regulated),
- Taxes and levies (like the fuel levy and Road Accident Fund),
- Transport and storage costs within SA.