As of the most recent daily snapshot, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows the following cumulative over/(under) recoveries for the pricing window used to estimate December fuel price adjustments.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 10 November 2025
Here are the average unit over/(under) recoveries for the period 31 October – 10 November 2025:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 24/11/2025 | Adjustment on 17/11/2025 | Adjustment on 10/11/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R0.09 | |||
| Petrol 93 | -R0.03 | |||
| Diesel 0.05% | -R0.65 | |||
| Diesel 0.005% | -R0.78 |
Drivers of this week’s balance (movement in the average over/under-recovery):
- International product prices:
- Petrol 95: (5.316 c/l); Petrol 93: (0.287 c/l)
- Diesel 0.05%: (61.386 c/l); Diesel 0.005%: (74.442 c/l)
- Illuminating paraffin: (67.586 c/l)
- Exchange rate:
- Petrol 95: (3.261 c/l); Petrol 93: (3.194 c/l)
- Diesel 0.05%: (3.731 c/l); Diesel 0.005%: (3.793 c/l)
- Illuminating paraffin: (3.671 c/l)
- Average R/$ used: R17.2063/$ (up to 10 November 2025)
In simple terms: the “under-recovery” numbers are below zero, so the import-parity cost is higher than what motorists are paying at the pump right now. The two big pushes are higher international product prices and a softer rand over the observed days.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in December 2025?
How this week compares with last week’s early view:
Last week’s early readings (week ending 7 November 2025) pointed to a larger petrol under-recovery of about 37 c/land deeper diesel under-recoveries of 96 c/l (0.05% sulphur) and 112 c/l (0.005%).
This week’s average to 10 November 2025 shows petrol under-recovery easing to 8.58 c/l, while diesel remains deeply negative at 65–78 c/l.
What the movements suggest:
On petrol, pressure is present but milder than last week’s early snapshot. If the pattern stays the same over the month, this points to a smaller upward adjustment risk than indicated a week ago.
With diesel, under-recoveries remain large. If this persists, diesel would face stronger upward adjustment pressurethan petrol.
What’s driving this week’s movements (and how this lines up with oil):
The CEF shows the biggest drag coming from international product prices, with a smaller additional drag from the exchange rate.
This aligns with how crude-linked product prices typically behave: when oil and refined product prices rise, the BFP rises and the recovery worsens.
Please note: Latest spot oil numbers were not provided in this update; the comparison here is therefore limited to the CEF’s “international product prices” line item.
How accurate is the CEF data for the final price, and what else goes into it?
The daily over/under-recovery is an indicator, not the final price change.
The official adjustment uses month-to-date averages of the Basic Fuel Price and exchange rate, then applies regulated elements (taxes and levies), logistical and zone differentials, and rounding by the authorities.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources publishes the official changes near month-end; for December 2025, the department is scheduled to finalise adjustments in the final week of November.
