The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has released its fourth and final petrol price forecast for July, and it gives South Africans a clearer picture of what might happen to fuel prices in August 2025.
Latest fuel price outlook for August 2025
Here’s what the latest daily over/(under) recoveries look like:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 28/07/2025 | Adjustment on 21/07/2025 | Adjustment on 14/07/2025 | Adjustment on 07/07/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.37 | +R0.41 | +R0.16 | +R0.30 | |
| Petrol 93 | +R0.42 | +R0.46 | +R0.20 | +R0.35 | |
| Diesel 0.05% | -R0.62 | -R0.84 | -R0.81 | -R0.53 | |
| Diesel 0.005% | -R0.58 | -R0.77 | -R0.47 | -R0.49 |
In simple terms:
- Positive numbers (over-recoveries) mean fuel prices might drop.
- Negative numbers (under-recoveries) suggest fuel prices might go up.
This is the last forecast before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) finalises fuel price changes for August.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in August 2025?
The trends from the past four weeks are now clear:
- Petrol: Over-recoveries remain, meaning petrol prices are expected to decrease, but slightly less than earlier forecasts suggested. For example, last week the over-recovery on 95 octane was over 50 cents. This week it’s 36.82 cents. So, while motorists may still get some relief, the drop may not be as large as initially hoped.
- Diesel: Diesel has been in under-recovery all month, and the shortfall is still significant. This tells us that diesel prices are likely to increase in August.
- Paraffin: Under-recovery levels suggest a possible increase for paraffin users as well.
The Basic Fuel Price (BFP), which is influenced by international oil prices and the rand’s exchange rate against the US dollar, has been somewhat volatile. According to the CEF:
- Oil prices (Brent crude) held steady near US $70.05 per barrel, suggesting a period of stabilisation.
- The rand, however, weakened slightly over the month, making imported fuel more expensive.
These two main factors — global oil price and rand/dollar exchange rate — are the biggest reasons for the ongoing shifts in fuel prices.
How accurate is the CEF data in predicting actual fuel price changes?
CEF’s daily snapshots are projections, not Sguarantees. They calculate the basic cost of fuel using international benchmarks and local currency values. But the final fuel price, published monthly by the DMRE, includes other elements such as:
- Fuel levies (e.g., the R0.16 per litre increase that took effect on 4 June 2025)
- Wholesale and retail margins
- Transport and storage costs
- Slate levy (used to manage under- and over-recovery balances)
That means even if the CEF data shows a potential 36c/litre drop in petrol, the actual adjustment could be smaller or offset by additional charges or taxes.