Eskom, South Africa’s primary electricity supplier, announced promising news about loadshedding for the upcoming winter months.
Winter loadshedding could be avoided: Here’s how
According to Eskom board chairperson Mteto Nyati and a Power Alert statement issued on Friday, 7 June 2024, the energy availability factor (EAF) has seen a significant improvement.
Currently, the EAF stands at 64% and is expected to increase further, reducing the likelihood of loadshedding during the winter.
Nyati, in an interview with eNCA, highlighted that despite the increased electricity usage due to colder temperatures, Eskom’s strategic maintenance and operational plans are yielding positive results.
Loadshedding, which has been a persistent issue in South Africa, has been suspended for 73 consecutive days, marking a notable period of stability in the country’s power supply.
Eskom attributes this success to the Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which focused on extensive planned maintenance during the summer months of 2023/24.
This strategy included maintaining an average of 8,000MW during the summer and reaching 18% of generation capacity under maintenance between December 2023 and January 2024.
These efforts have resulted in a decrease in unplanned outages and an overall improvement in the reliability of the power generation fleet.
What is the state of the power system?
Eskom’s recent updates indicate a robust performance of the power system.
The year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 6 June 2024) EAF has, according to Nyati, increased to 64%, up from 53.2% during the same period last year.
This improvement is primarily due to a reduction in the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which decreased from 35.7% last year to 28.0% this year.
Planned maintenance currently stands at 4,653MW, consistent with Eskom’s maintenance plans for this winter.
The strategic use of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) has also played a significant role. Eskom spent R1.71 billion on OCGTs from 1 April 2024 to 6 June 2024, producing 246.91GWh, which is about 77% less than the same period last year.
This reduction in OCGT usage indicates a more stable and efficient power system.
Moreover, Eskom plans to return 3,020MW of generating capacity to service by Monday, 10 June 2024.
This additional capacity will further bolster the power system’s stability, reducing the likelihood of loadshedding.
However, Eskom has also highlighted the issue of network overloading due to electricity theft, which includes illegal connections and meter tampering.
To prevent network overloading and the associated risks, Eskom urges consumers to reduce electricity consumption, ensure legal connections, and report any illegal activities.
Eskom’s recent achievements and strategic measures indicate a promising outlook for the winter months.
If the current trends continue, South Africa might experience a winter without loadshedding, a significant relief for the country’s residents and businesses.
Eskom will provide further updates on 14 June 2024 or sooner if there are any significant changes.