The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) final forecast for October shows a positive outlook for petrol prices in November 2025, with data suggesting that a modest price drop could be on the way.
According to Thursday’s reading, the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) for petrol remains in over-recovery territory, meaning consumers may pay less per litre when the new prices are announced next week.
The Basic Fuel Price is a key factor in determining how much motorists pay for fuel in South Africa.
It is based on international oil prices and the rand-to-US dollar exchange rate. When the BFP reflects an “over-recovery”, it means that the global price of oil and the local currency’s exchange rate have combined to reduce the overall cost of importing fuel.
Conversely, an “under-recovery” would suggest that prices are likely to rise.
According to the CEF’s latest data, petrol 95 is recording an over-recovery of about 30.37 cents per litre, while petrol 93 shows a slightly higher over-recovery of 35.85 cents per litre.
These figures are up from earlier in the week when the over-recoveries for both grades were slightly lower, indicating that the current trend favours a small decrease in petrol prices for November.
For the month as a whole, the average over-recovery between 26 September and 30 October stands at roughly 50 cents per litre for petrol 95 and 55 cents for petrol 93.
This points to a steady improvement through the month, largely influenced by international oil prices softening and the rand stabilising at around R17.22 to the US dollar.
However, the picture for diesel is quite different. Diesel continues to show a strong under-recovery, which means prices at the pump are likely to rise.
Because diesel prices are not set by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) but by retailers, the final price will vary from one station to another.
The CEF’s data shows diesel under-recoveries ranging from 25 to 32 cents per litre.
Earlier this week, Swisher Post’s monthly forecaster noted that Brent crude oil prices dropped from around $91 to $89 a barrel. Normally, this would help lower fuel import costs, but the benefit was limited due to the rand’s weaker performance against the dollar during the same period.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is expected to confirm the official fuel price adjustments early next week. If the trend continues, motorists could see a small reduction in petrol prices at the start of November, while diesel users might face higher costs.
Thursday’s figures mark the final tracking of the Basic Fuel Price before the new rates are set.
The next CEF update, which will include data for Friday, will be released on Monday, giving the final indication of where fuel prices will stand before the official adjustment takes effect.
