Eskom has confirmed that the national power grid remains stable going into the weekend of 24–26 May 2025.
What’s the likelihood of loadshedding this weekend?
In its latest Power Alert, the utility said no loadshedding is expected, with emergency reserves in place and sufficient generation capacity returning to support peak demand.
The power utility stated that 5 760MW of generation capacity is scheduled to return by Monday evening, which will boost grid reliability further.
Loadshedding has been suspended since 22:00 on Thursday 15 May 2025, and Eskom reiterated that “the power system is stable” despite colder weather affecting some parts of the country.
Unplanned outages, known as the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), currently stand at 28.5% for the financial year-to-date — only slightly lower than the same period last year.
While this still signals considerable strain on the system, Eskom’s emergency reserves have been strategically used to manage demand during peak periods.
Does Eskom have capacity to keep the lights on this winter?
Eskom’s Winter Outlook, released earlier this month, remains in effect and indicates that South Africa can avoid loadshedding if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise above this level, short-term Stage 2 loadshedding could be introduced, but Eskom stresses that this would be limited.
Currently, unplanned outages average around 13 819MW — slightly above the base case but within manageable ra
nge. Eskom has also reported a decline in the use of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), which are diesel-powered generators typically used as a backup. This week’s OCGT usage dropped to 7.65%, down from 10.94% the previous week, helping to manage diesel costs and improve long-term sustainability.
Despite this, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) — a key measure of the system’s overall performance — is lower than last year at 57.38%, due largely to a 2.8% increase in planned maintenance activities.
As winter demand rises, Eskom has warned the public about the risks of illegal electricity connections. The utility says such activities overload transformers and lead to equipment failures or even explosions.
These problems could force Eskom to reduce power in some areas to protect infrastructure.
Eskom has also dismissed as false a viral rumour claiming South Africans would face 14-hour blackouts in June.
“There are no planned outages of this scale,” Eskom stated, urging the public to trust official channels for updates.
The utility will release its next update on Friday, 30 May 2025, unless there are major changes before then.