As August 2024 edges closer, recent fuel price data signals a potential decrease in petrol prices across South Africa, providing a reprieve for motorists gearing up for the new month.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to fuel prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 7 August 2024. See the update below.
Mid-month petrol price forecast shows potential increases in August 2024
The recent data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates a significant over-recovery for all types of fuel as of the end of July 2024.
This over-recovery means that the costs of petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin are currently being covered by their selling prices, and then some, pointing to a potential decrease in prices at the pump.
For example, Petrol 95 ULP showed an over recovery of 25.780 cents per litre, while Diesel 0.05% was even higher at 67.924 cents per litre.
Here’s a closer look at the over/under-recovery rates, as of Monday, 5 August 2024:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 30/07/2024 | Adjustment on 23/07/2024 | Adjustment on 16/07/2024 | Adjustment on 09/07/2024 |
| Petrol 95 | R0.15 | +R0.26 | +R0.22 | -R0.01 | -R0.22 |
| Petrol 93 | R0.15 | +R0.20 | +R0.16 | -R0.08 | -R0.29 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R0.28 | +R0.70 | +R0.57 | +R0.28 | -R0.09 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R0.17 | +R0.63 | +R0.45 | +R0.16 | -R0.15 |
With this trend in over recovery, motorists can expect potentially lower prices for both petrol and diesel.
This is particularly beneficial as it could ease the cost burden on consumers and businesses alike, making commuting and transportation more affordable.
While the forecast is positive, it is essential for motorists to keep an eye on global oil price movements and local economic factors that could influence these predictions.
Changes in the global market or shifts in local tax or subsidy policies can quickly alter the expected price adjustments.
Adjustments in local transport tariffs and changes in government-imposed levies also play a critical role in determining final fuel prices.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Monthly adjustments to fuel prices are made on the first Wednesday of each month based on these factors. The next changes will take effect on Wednesday, 5 June 2024.
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.