Eskom has announced the continued suspension of loadshedding starting Monday, 8 July 2024, marking more than 100 consecutive days of stable power supply.
Loadshedding outlook for this week: Here’s what to expect
What is the Current State of the Power System?
Eskom has managed to maintain a stable power supply for more than 100 consecutive days since 26 March 2024. This achievement is attributed to the dedicated efforts of Eskom’s 40,000 employees who have been working tirelessly to implement the Generation Recovery Plan.
This plan, initiated in March 2023, has significantly improved the reliability, efficiency, and availability of the coal generation fleet.
The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged suspension of loadshedding was nearly four years ago, between 8 September 2020 and 11 December 2020.
Current unplanned outages have averaged 12,500MW since the start of FY25, with today’s figure recorded at 11,271MW, significantly lower than the winter forecast.
This reduction in unplanned outages has resulted in an available capacity of 32,816MW, a level last achieved on 6 August 2021.
What is the Likelihood of Loadshedding This Week?
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15,500MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2. This forecast remains in force.
However, the current performance has surpassed expectations, with unplanned outages well below the forecasted levels.
Eskom’s operational efficiency continues to improve, with the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) decreasing to 27.1% for the financial year to date, compared to 34.9% in the corresponding period last year.
This represents a 7.8% improvement. Additionally, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has increased to 61.5% for the year to date, up from 54.56% in the same period last year.
The weekly EAF has also improved from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 65.7% from 1 July to 4 July 2024.
Here’s the loadshedding schedule starting Monday, 8 July 2024
Here is the official loadshedding schedule:
| Date | 00:00 – 05:00 | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 |
| Mon 8 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Tues 9 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Wed 10 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Thurs 11 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Friday 12 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sat 13 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sun 14 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Readers from these metros can check the latest loadshedding schedule below:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
What is the average demand expected to be this week?
Eskom’s strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), has been crucial in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly during the evening peaks from 17:00 to 22:00.
Diesel consumption remains under projected figures for this winter and is considerably lower than the previous year’s usage.
From 1 April 2024 to 4 July 2024, Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs was R3.24 billion, generating 471.18GWh, which is approximately 67% less than the R9.96 billion spent last year over the same period for 1,647.87GWh.
The OCGT load factor for this period was 6.30%, compared to last year’s figure of 21.29%.
For the period from 1 July to 4 July 2024, the OCGT load factor was 6.05%, lower than last year’s figure of 21.17%.
Approximately 2,770MW of generating capacity is scheduled to return to service by Monday, 8 July 2024.
Eskom’s projected evening peak demand for this week is expected to average 28,842MW.