The latest data from the Central Energy Fund shows a sharp increase in fuel costs, driven by higher international product prices and a weaker rand, alongside the continued impact of a 16-cent fuel levy.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to petrol prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 2 July 2025.
Latest fuel price outlook for July 2025
The CEF measures how much fuel suppliers are gaining or losing based on current prices.
This is known as over- or under-recovery. If suppliers are losing money, it’s an under-recovery — and this often signals a future price hike.
Here are the latest numbers:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 23/06/2025 | Adjustment on 16/06/2025 | Adjustment on 09/06/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R0.52 | -R1.80 | -R0.88 | -R0.01 |
| Petrol 93 | -R0.55 | -R1.77 | -R0.83 | +R0.01 |
| Diesel 0.05% | -R0.82 | -R2.42 | -R1.34 | -R0.11 |
| Diesel 0.005% | -R0.84 | -R2.44 | -R1.36 | -R0.14 |
These values show that all fuel types are costing more to supply than what fuel companies are allowed to charge at the pump. This is the steepest under-recovery trend recorded this month.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in July 2025?
When fuel suppliers can’t recover their costs, petrol prices usually go up. This week’s update shows larger under-recoveries compared to last week, when petrol 95 recorded a smaller loss of just 88 cents per litre and diesel 0.05% had a loss of R1.34. The sharp shift signals much higher cost pressures.
This week, the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) — the cost to bring fuel into the country — has increased significantly. For example, the BFP for petrol 95 jumped from 982.231 SA cents per litre on 9 June to 1,160.978 SA cents by 23 June. That means fuel is costing more globally.
Two major things are causing this:
- Higher international product prices: Global fuel prices have gone up, and this is reflected in the BFP.
- Weaker rand: The exchange rate used on 23 June was R18.0545 to the dollar, compared to R17.7203 earlier in the month. When the rand weakens, imported fuel becomes more expensive.
Even though Brent crude oil prices are slightly down at $67.66 per barrel, local factors like the exchange rate and supply pricing are having a stronger impact.
On top of this, the R0.16 per litre fuel levy, which came into effect on 4 June 2025, will be added to July’s fuel prices. This levy is applied regardless of price trends and will increase the pump price by 16 cents per litre.
The CEF’s daily figures help estimate where fuel prices are heading, but the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy uses an average of daily data from the entire month to make the final decision.
Other factors, like international shipping and taxes, also go into the final price.
In simple terms: fuel is costing more to bring in, the rand is weaker, and there’s a new tax. These all point to a price increase in July 2025.
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.