South African petrol price: Here’s what to expect in January 2026

South Africa’s first fuel price forecast for January 2026 shows that, for now, there is pressure for petrol and diesel prices to come down rather than go up.

• All major fuel types are in “over-recovery”, which usually points to possible price cuts next month.
• Diesel and illuminating paraffin are the biggest over-recoveries, hinting at deeper potential reductions than petrol.
• Softer international oil prices around the $60 mark are helping to pull the basic fuel cost lower.

Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 8 December 2025

The Central Energy Fund’s first set of numbers for the new month acts like an early scoreboard.

It compares what we are paying now to what fuel actually costs on the world market, once the rand is taken into account.

For the pricing day of Monday, 8 December 2025, the unit over/(under) recoveries are:

All of these are positive numbers. In CEF language, that means over-recovery.

In very simple terms:

• Over-recovery = the calculated basic cost of fuel is lower than the level built into current pump or wholesale prices.
• Under-recovery = the basic cost is higher than what we are charging now.

So, an over-recovery of about 27 cents on petrol 95 means: if you strip fuel down to its “raw ingredient” cost (before taxes and margins), it is about 27 cents per litre cheaper than the price that was used to set the current pump price.

The pattern is even stronger on diesel and paraffin, with over-recoveries close to or above 1 rand per litre. That is a big gap between the current “true” cost and what motorists and households are being charged.

What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in January 2026?

This first forecast does not fix January’s prices, but it gives a strong early hint of the direction.

1. What the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) movements look like

The over-recoveries tell us that the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) has moved down compared with the levels that were used to set the current December prices.

Think of it like this:

• When the December prices were decided, the BFP was higher.
• Since then, the combination of global product prices and the rand has pushed the BFP down.
• Because the formula is still charging us as if the BFP were higher, the system shows a “surplus” – the over-recovery.

For petrol, this “surplus” is a few dozen cents per litre. For diesel and paraffin, it is close to or above one rand per litre. That is a sign that the basic cost of these fuels has dropped more sharply than petrol.

2. How this compares with last week’s picture

A week ago, when we were looking at the final forecasts for December’s prices, the story was very different:

• The CEF data for late November showed under-recoveries across the board.
• That under-recovery was one of the key signals that led to the actual price increases that took effect on Wednesday, 3 December.

Now, in the very first forecast for January:

• The sign has flipped from under-recovery to over-recovery.
• This tells us that after the December increases took effect, the BFP has eased back down.

In plain language: last week the numbers were pointing “up” and that led to higher prices for December. This week, the early numbers for January are pointing “down”, especially for diesel and paraffin.

3. What is driving this week’s movements?

The CEF daily sheets usually break the change in over/under recovery into two main pieces:

• Movement in international product prices (the dollar price of petrol, diesel and paraffin on global markets).
• Movement in the rand/dollar exchange rate.

Given the strong over-recovery, the signal is clear:

• International product prices have come down compared to the levels used for the December decision.
• The rand has not weakened enough to cancel that benefit and may have helped slightly.

So the basic cost of importing fuel, when we convert from dollars into rands, is now lower than it was when December’s increases were locked in.

4. Matching this with the latest oil price data

Fuel product prices follow crude oil with a bit of a lag. They are not identical, but they move in the same broad direction.

On and around 8 December 2025:

• Brent crude oil has been trading around 62–63 dollars a barrel.  
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US benchmark, has been around 58–59 dollars a barrel and even slipped more than 2% on 8 December.  

Analysts attribute this softness in oil to:

• Expectations of plenty of supply going into 2026.  
• Ongoing geopolitical talks that could add more Russian barrels back into the market.  

These lower and relatively stable crude prices are consistent with what the CEF’s numbers are telling us:

• The “raw” cost of fuel on international markets has eased.
• When you plug those lower product prices into the BFP formula, you get an over-recovery in South Africa.

Put simply: the world is paying a bit less for oil and refined fuels than it did when our December prices were set, and that is showing up in the CEF’s early January forecast.

5. What this implies for January 2026 prices

If this pattern continues for the rest of the pricing period:

• Petrol: the over-recovery in the 20–30 cent range suggests room for modest cuts in petrol prices in January.
• Diesel: over-recoveries of around 1 rand per litre point to potentially larger reductions, which would help transport operators and, indirectly, food and goods prices.
• Illuminating paraffin: a strong over-recovery here could translate into a meaningful cut for households that depend on paraffin for cooking and heating.

However, this is still an early snapshot. A sudden jump in oil prices or a sharp weakening of the rand later in the month could reduce or even cancel the over-recovery.

How accurate is the CEF data, and what else goes into the final price?

The CEF’s daily over/under recovery figures are:

• A technical scorecard, not the final decision.
• Calculated using actual daily international product prices and the rand/dollar rate.

They are very useful because they show, day by day, whether current retail and wholesale prices are above or below the “true” basic cost. But the final January 2026 fuel prices will also depend on:

1. The full-month averageGovernment uses average values over the official review period, not just one day’s data. A few calm days at the start of the month can be offset by turbulence later on.
2. Taxes and leviesThe fuel levy, RAF levy and other statutory charges are fixed in rand per litre and do not change with each monthly adjustment, unless there is a special decision in the Budget or another policy announcement.
3. Margins and logisticsWholesale and retail margins, storage, transport and other regulated costs are adjusted from time to time. When they change, they can add or subtract a few cents, even if the BFP is flat.
4. Slate account and roundingIf there is a large unpaid balance in the industry slate account, a slate levy can be used to claw this back. Rounding rules also smooth the exact cents at the pump.

Because of all these layers, the CEF’s over/under recovery is best seen as an early warning system:

• Positive (over-recovery) for several weeks usually points towards price cuts.
• Negative (under-recovery) for several weeks usually points towards increases.
• The exact size of the final move depends on what happens for the rest of the month and how all the other elements in the formula line up.

Right now, that early warning system is flashing “possible cuts ahead”, especially for diesel and paraffin, as South Africa heads towards the January 2026 fuel price decision.