This week’s Central Energy Fund (CEF) update shows under-recoveries across petrol, diesel and paraffin, driven mainly by changes in international product prices with only a small offset from the rand.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to petrol prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 3 December 2025.
Over/(under) recoveries for this week, as of Monday, 24 November 2025
Here are the latest over/(under) recoveries as of Monday, 24 November 2025:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 24/11/2025 | Adjustment on 17/11/2025 | Adjustment on 10/11/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R0.29 | -R0.22 | -R0.48 | -R0.09 |
| Petrol 93 | -R0.29 | -R0.17 | -R0.42 | -R0.03 |
| Diesel 0.05% | -R0.65 | -R0.24 | -R0.69 | -R0.65 |
| Diesel 0.005% | -R0.82 | -R0.44 | -R0.84 | -R0.78 |
every major fuel grade showed an under-recovery on the CEF numbers for the observed period; i.e., the calculated Basic Fuel Price (BFP) is higher than the prices currently built into retail and wholesale levels, so there is upward pressure on pump prices.
What the BFP movements are for this observed period
From the CEF table, the BFP on 24 November 2025 sits at these levels (in c/l):
- ULP 95 = 974.131
- ULP 93 = 953.289
- Diesel 0.05% = 1,073.540
- Diesel 0.005% = 1,099.618
- IP = 1,061.959
The press-release contribution numbers for the period 05/11/2025–24/11/2025 are slightly lower, and the difference between the BFP and that contribution equals the unit over/(under) recovery above.
In simple terms: the calculated BFP moved to roughly R9.74/l (ULP 95, expressed as 974.131 c/l) for the reference day; because current pump/wholesale prices haven’t fully caught up, we see the negative over/(under) recovery values reported.
How the latest fuel price forecast compares to last week’s forecast
- Direction: The CEF’s third forecast this month continues to show under-recoveries across the board. This direction (upward pressure on retail prices) is unchanged from earlier reports in the month.
- Magnitude: The report shows material under-recovery especially for diesel 0.005% (–43.588 c/l), which is larger than the petrol under-recoveries and signals stronger upward pressure on diesel relative to petrol. The CEF’s latest report also gives “average” figures across the month as well, which indicate the under-recovery is persistent rather than a one-day blip.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in December 2025?
International crude prices on 24–25 Nov 2025
Brent was trading around $62–63 per barrel and WTI around $58–59 per barrel on 24–25 Nov 2025.
Those levels are lower than some earlier peaks in 2025 but still represent material cost input into the product price chain at the time of the CEF calculation.
How this links to the CEF numbers
The CEF attributes most of the movement in the BFP (and the resulting under-recovery) to international product prices, which include refined product values (not only crude).
Even if crude oil is not at extreme highs, refined product markets can move separately (seasonal demand, refinery outages, shipping/logistics and product spreads) and push the product-price component up — and that is what the CEF’s numbers show as the dominant factor.
Exchange rate
The CEF shows a small exchange-rate effect (the rand’s movement versus the dollar) that slightly offset the product-price impact but did not cancel it.
A weaker rand would increase the BFP; a stronger rand reduces it. This week the exchange-rate effect was small relative to international product price moves.
Plain language summary: imagine buying imported petrol components, if the global price of those products goes up, the calculated local cost goes up too. The crude price (Brent/WTI) is a big input, but refined product prices and the rand/dollar movement are what the CEF used to calculate the BFP this week, and refined product changes were the bigger driver.
How accurate is the CEF data for the final price, and what else goes into it?
The daily over/under-recovery is an indicator, not the final price change.
The official adjustment uses month-to-date averages of the BFP and exchange rate, then applies regulated elements (taxes and levies), logistical and zone differentials, and rounding by the authorities.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources publishes the official changes near month-end; for December 2025, the department is scheduled to finalise adjustments in the final week of November.
Bottom line: the CEF numbers are the most authoritative technical indicator of where the BFP is heading and are highly useful for forecasting. They are not the only determinants of the final pump price — timing, industry margins, government levies and operational issues also matter.
