New data from energy expert Chris Yelland shows that Eskom is still having major problems keeping its power stations running.
Energy analyst warns of more loadshedding in 2025
The information, based on Eskom’s week-by-week performance until the end of March 2025, reveals a disturbing trend: too many breakdowns are happening, too much power is going offline unexpectedly, and the overall energy supply is not as stable as it may seem.
The new line graphs released by Yelland show three important things: how much electricity Eskom is able to produce, how much of the system is offline for planned maintenance, and how much is offline due to breakdowns or technical failures.
In the first graph, we see Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF).
This is a number that tells us how much of Eskom’s power system is working and able to send electricity to homes and businesses.
A healthy EAF is usually above 70%. But in 2025 so far, Eskom’s EAF is stuck around 56.7%, which is very low.
This means Eskom is only able to use just over half of its full electricity supply. In simple terms, Eskom is struggling to keep enough of its power plants working at the same time.
The second graph focuses on Planned Maintenance, also called PCLF. This is when Eskom takes parts of the system offline on purpose to fix or maintain them.
Planned maintenance is necessary to keep the system healthy in the long term, but it also means less electricity is available in the short term.
In early 2025, Eskom increased its planned maintenance to over 6,900 megawatts, which is higher than usual. The reason is to get ready for the high electricity demand that comes during winter.
The third and most worrying graph is the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF). This shows how many breakdowns or unplanned problems are happening.
These are surprises — things that Eskom didn’t expect, like equipment suddenly failing or power stations shutting down.
According to the graph, these breakdowns have remained very high throughout 2025. Around 30% of the system has been down due to unplanned failures every week.
That means nearly one-third of Eskom’s system is unreliable.
Despite Eskom’s claims that the situation is under control, Chris Yelland says the data tells a different story. He warns that these breakdowns are a major risk to the stability of the power grid.
He explained that even though there hasn’t been loadshedding recently, this could change quickly if breakdowns continue or if demand suddenly rises.
“With year-to-date EAF of 56.73% and unplanned outages (breakdowns and partial load losses) hovering around 30% of the Eskom fleet, this is not where one would would want to be,” he noted.
Eskom, in its latest public update on Friday, 28 March 2025, confirmed that loadshedding is currently suspended. They said that breakdowns have slightly decreased when compared to last year, and emergency reserves are being used to keep the lights on.
But the improvement is small, and the problems are far from over.
The risk remains that if just a few more power stations go down, Eskom won’t have enough electricity to meet demand — and loadshedding will return.
That’s why experts like Yelland are saying that the current situation is not as safe as it seems.
The bottom line is this: Eskom is doing more maintenance and has managed to reduce diesel use, but it still can’t keep its power stations running reliably. Until that changes, South Africans should be prepared for the possibility of loadshedding returning in 2025.
