Eskom has projected that Stage 2 loadshedding is the worst-case scenario South Africans can expect this winter, provided current power generation trends continue.
Eskom maps out plan to avoid loadshedding this winter
This assurance came during the state utility’s Winter Outlook 2025 media briefing on Monday, 5 May.
According to Eskom Group CEO Dan Morakane, “This is work in progress.”
He explained that Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan, launched in 2023, has required ongoing adjustments.
“We had some set of assumptions in the beginning. Of course, we have to continuously take stock in terms of how it’s delivering relative to aspirations at the time and do the necessary interventions to keep us on the path,” he said.
The plan for this winter is based on a projection that unplanned outages will stay within the 13,000MW to 15,000MW range. If losses stay below 13,000MW, loadshedding can be completely avoided.
But should they rise into the upper part of the projected range, South Africans may experience up to 21 days of Stage 1 or Stage 2 loadshedding.
Currently, Eskom reports unplanned outages of 12,644MW, a decrease from last week’s figure of 13,519MW. Maintenance and system performance improvements have contributed to this decline.
Additionally, Eskom has reduced its diesel consumption and reported fewer days of loadshedding this year. From 1 April to 1 May, diesel-powered generation dropped significantly compared to the same time last year, and generation output improved by 6%.
What’s the current state of the power system?
The power system remains stable with sufficient emergency reserves, according to a Power Alert issued on Friday, 2 May 2025.
Eskom is conducting intensive planned maintenance to prepare for peak winter demand. An average of 6,928MW has been under planned maintenance from April through early May—a 3.4 percentage point increase from last year.
Despite this, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—which indicates how much of Eskom’s total capacity is available—stood at 56.43%, down slightly from 58.30% in 2024. This dip was expected due to more planned maintenance and is not considered a crisis.
Eskom says it remains on track with its maintenance schedule and aims to restore 2,850MW to service before the next peak demand.
