Eskom has confirmed that South Africa’s national power system remains stable this week, despite higher electricity demand caused by a winter cold front.
Eskom update on the state of the power system
According to the utility’s latest Power Alert issued on Friday, 27 June 2025, efforts to strengthen the grid are ongoing, with 2 450 megawatts (MW) of electricity generation expected to return to service before peak hours on Monday, 30 June 2025.
To understand these numbers in simple terms: electricity is produced in power stations using various machines called units.
When Eskom says “2 450MW will return to service,” it means that previously broken or serviced units will be fixed and start producing electricity again, helping to meet demand.
During the week of 20 to 26 June, planned maintenance—this is when Eskom takes machines offline on purpose to fix or service them—averaged 3 789MW. This figure is lower than in past weeks, which is good news because it means more machines were available to generate electricity.
At the same time, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which shows how much of Eskom’s fleet is actually working, ranged from 60% to 64%—with a monthly average of 60.61%.
This figure tells us how reliable the system is. While that number isn’t perfect, it does show a steady performance.
What’s the likelihood of loadshedding?
The big question for most South Africans is whether loadshedding will return. According to Eskom, if unplanned outages—that’s when machines break down without warning—stay under 13 000MW, loadshedding will not be necessary.
But if those breakdowns climb to 15 000MW, there could be up to 21 days of Stage 2 loadshedding between now and the end of August.
Currently, unplanned outages are sitting at 15 137MW. This is higher than the safe limit and means the risk of loadshedding is not gone, although Eskom says they still have enough reserve power to avoid it for now.
Some of these breakdowns include the delay in returning Medupi Unit 4, which alone contributes 800MW to the outage total.
The system is also still relying on diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to meet demand.
These are expensive emergency power sources. So far this financial year, Eskom has spent R4.76 billion on diesel, which is within budget, but usage remains high.
The utility hopes diesel use will go down as more machines return from long-term repairs.
Eskom is warning against illegal electricity connections and energy theft. These illegal activities can damage transformers, leading to long power outages that are unrelated to planned loadshedding.
Residents are also encouraged to report crimes affecting power infrastructure and to use electricity responsibly this winter.
The next system update is scheduled for Friday, 4 July 2025. Any significant changes to the current status will be shared with the public immediately.
