Eskom has announced that South Africa’s electricity grid remains stable despite pressure from cold winter demand and ongoing challenges with its power stations.
Eskom releases latest power system update
According to its latest Power Alert, issued on Friday, 4 July 2025, no loadshedding has occurred since 15 May 2025, and the utility is currently managing power station failures within what it considers acceptable levels.
The power system, Eskom says, is being supported by emergency backup reserves during peak times in the mornings and evenings. These reserves are like standby systems used to fill in gaps when regular power stations fail or cannot produce enough electricity.
Eskom reports that a total of 2 350 megawatts (MW) — roughly the output of two large power stations — is expected to return to the system by Monday, 7 July 2025, which would help increase available electricity supply.
Between 27 June and 3 July 2025, Eskom maintained an average of 3 528MW in planned maintenance — work they schedule in advance.
However, a major issue lies in unplanned power outages, which is when power stations suddenly break down. These outages have reached 13 167MW. Although Eskom adjusted its calculations recently, this figure is still above the 13 000MW threshold it set in its winter forecast.
If breakdowns exceed 15 000MW, Eskom’s own data shows that Stage 2 loadshedding may be required on up to 21 days before the end of August.
No loadshedding in sight, despite warnings from energy experts
Despite these challenges, Eskom has not initiated loadshedding — the scheduled power cuts imposed to prevent a total grid failure — since mid-May. However, energy expert Professor Anton Eberhard cautions that the country’s electricity system is operating without much buffer.
On 28 June 2025, Eberhard warned, “South Africa’s electricity system is again under strain, with very little reserve margin.”
In simple terms, he explained that the amount of spare electricity available is too low. He pointed out that unplanned outages are already exceeding 15 000MW, which Eskom had flagged as the danger level.
Eberhard stressed that the only reason South Africa has avoided more power cuts is because solar and wind power — especially from private users and large-scale farms — have reduced the pressure on Eskom by supplying extra electricity and lowering demand.
He also criticised the energy ministry and Eskom’s leadership, urging them to move faster on expanding renewable energy.
“SA needs more new generation capacity,” Eberhard said, adding that Eskom’s efforts to hold onto key grid assets could block much-needed investment in electricity infrastructure.
While Eskom says the system is under control, its own report shows a worsening situation compared to last year. The number of unplanned outages is 1 942MW higher than in the same period last year.
At the same time, Eskom’s reliance on expensive emergency power from open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) — which run on diesel — is increasing, though usage has dropped slightly this week.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which measures how much of Eskom’s fleet is actually working, currently stands at 58.21%, below last year’s 61.39%. This means that more of Eskom’s power stations are sitting idle due to technical problems.
Eskom has spent R4.85 billion on diesel for its gas turbines so far this financial year to generate electricity, significantly more than last year.
Eskom will release another update on Friday, 11 July 2025. For now, the risk of loadshedding remains low — but only if breakdowns don’t increase further.
