South Africa’s electricity supply is once again on shaky ground, despite Eskom’s reassurance that the system is stable.
Energy expert shoots down Eskom’s claims of a stable power grid
Energy policy specialist and academic, Professor Anton Eberhard, has cautioned that the country’s power grid is dangerously close to collapsing into loadshedding, pointing to rising unplanned breakdowns and a fragile generation capacity.
Eskom’s latest power alert, issued on Friday, 27 June 2025, states that 2,450 megawatts (MW) of power generation is expected to return to service by Monday, 30 June 2025.
This means that some power stations that were previously out of action will be back online and able to produce electricity.
The power utility also noted that planned maintenance was down to 3,789MW between 20 and 26 June 2025, meaning more machines were working compared to previous weeks.
While this sounds promising, Eberhard has raised concerns that unplanned power outages — which refer to machines breaking down suddenly — are above 15,000MW.
Eskom previously warned that if breakdowns go beyond 13,000MW, the country could see power cuts. With outages currently at 15,137MW, the threshold has already been crossed.
In a statement, Eberhard said:
“South Africa’s electricity system is again under strain, with very little reserve margin.”
He warned that the return of loadshedding is likely, especially if these unplanned outages persist.
Eskom has said there could be as many as 21 days of Stage 2 loadshedding between now and the end of August if these breakdowns continue. One of the major issues is the delay in bringing Medupi Unit 4 back online, which accounts for 800MW of the current outage total.
Another strain on the system is the continued use of diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).
These turbines are emergency power generators and are very expensive to run. Eskom has already spent R4.76 billion on diesel this financial year. Although this is within budget, it signals that Eskom is still heavily reliant on emergency power to keep the lights on.
While Eskom credits renewable energy sources — such as solar and wind — for supporting the grid, Eberhard said more must be done.
He urged Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa to announce new rounds of solar, wind, and battery auctions every six months to increase electricity supply.
He also called on Eskom’s CEO Dan Marokane to allow the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) to operate independently. This, he said, would speed up much-needed investment in the grid.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF), a measure of how much of Eskom’s equipment is working, averaged 60.61% this month.
While Eskom considers this a steady performance, Eberhard believes it’s not enough to meet the country’s growing energy demand in winter.
In addition to these concerns, Eskom is urging the public to report energy theft and illegal connections. These acts damage infrastructure and can lead to localised blackouts that are not part of planned loadshedding.
The utility will provide its next system update on Friday, 4 July 2025. Until then, South Africans are being asked to use electricity wisely and stay informed.
