This week’s fuel price forecast update from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that South Africans can still expect a drop in fuel prices in May — but it’s going to be smaller than hoped, especially for petrol.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to fuel prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 7 May 2025.
Latest fuel price outlook for May 2025
Here are the latest over-recovery numbers:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 28/04/2025 | Adjustment on 21/04/2025 | Adjustment on 14/04/2025 | Adjustment on 07/04/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.22 | +R0.07 | +R0.18 | +R0.40 | +R0.40 |
| Petrol 93 | +R0.22 | +R0.11 | +R0.18 | +R0.40 | +R0.37 |
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.42 | +R0.29 | +R0.30 | +R0.55 | +R0.51 |
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.41 | +R0.27 | +R0.28 | +R0.54 | +R0.52 |
What is an over-recovery?
This means that consumers are paying more at the pump than it actually costs to supply fuel. If there’s a consistent over-recovery, fuel prices can be adjusted downward.
Compared to last week’s forecast (21 April 2025), these over-recoveries are weaker, especially for petrol.
Last week, petrol had over-recoveries above +18 c/l. Now it’s just between +7 and +11 c/l. Diesel and paraffin are still in better shape but have also come down.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in May 2025?
Here’s what’s happening in simple terms:
1. BFP (Basic Fuel Price) movements during this period
| Fuel Type | BFP on 21 April | BFP on 28 April | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 ULP | 1,005.67 c/l | 1,016.56 c/l | ↑ +10.89 c/l |
| Petrol 93 ULP | 995.31 c/l | 1,001.65 c/l | ↑ +6.34 c/l |
| Diesel 0.05% sulphur | 1,053.80 c/l | 1,054.99 c/l | ↑ +1.19 c/l |
| Diesel 0.005% sulphur | 1,057.81 c/l | 1,058.66 c/l | ↑ +0.85 c/l |
| Illuminating Paraffin | 1,049.07 c/l | 1,059.95 c/l | ↑ +10.88 c/l |
- Petrol prices climbed notably over the past week.
- Diesel stayed relatively flat, which is why diesel still shows a healthier over-recovery than petrol.
2. What is causing the shifts?
- Oil prices fell, but too late: Brent crude fell to around $65.43 per barrel after being higher earlier in the month. However, much of April’s average was still based on higher oil prices, keeping the BFP up.
- Exchange rate stayed steady: The rand closed at about R18.82/$ on 28 April, similar to last week. This stable rand helped avoid an even bigger rise in fuel costs.
3. Impact on the fuel price forecast
- For petrol, the much smaller over-recovery now points to only a very slight price cut in May — possibly just a few cents off per litre.
- For diesel and paraffin, there’s still enough over-recovery to expect a meaningful price decrease, although it will also be smaller than earlier forecasts suggested.
How accurate is the CEF data in determining the final fuel price?
The CEF’s daily over/(under) recovery figures are a strong leading indicator because they measure:
- The gap between pump prices and the actual landed cost of fuel.
- Movements based on daily changes in oil prices and the exchange rate.
However, the final adjustments decided by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) also factor in:
- Full-month averages — not just the last week’s numbers.
- Fixed taxes and levies — like the Fuel Levy (R3.99/litre) and RAF Levy (R2.18/litre) that don’t move month-to-month.
- Transport zone adjustments — costs differ depending on how far fuel has to be moved inland.
- Pump price rounding rules — that can push the final price up or down by a cent.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.
