The latest data from the CEF continues to reflect modest over-recoveries across all fuel types, which under normal conditions would point to a small decrease in fuel prices for June 2025.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to petrol prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 4 June 2025.
Latest fuel price outlook for June 2025
Here are the latest over-recovery numbers:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 26/05/2025 | Adjustment on 19/05/2025 | Adjustment on 12/05/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.05 | +R0,15 | +R0.09 | +R0.08 |
| Petrol 93 | +R0.05 | +R0.13 | +R0.09 | +R0.09 |
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.37 | +R0.59 | +R0.27 | +R0.37 |
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.37 | +R0.58 | +R0.27 | +R0.38 |
These are the average over-recoveries between 2 and 26 May 2025:
Average over-recoveries (2 – 26 May 2025):
- Petrol 95 ULP: 18.668 cents per litre
- Petrol 93 ULP: 18.942 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: 49.769 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: 49.842 cents per litre
- Paraffin: 53.747 cents per litre
These figures suggest that June fuel prices would be heading for modest decreases, especially for diesel and illuminating paraffin, which are in stronger over-recovery positions. Petrol, while still in over-recovery, shows weaker margins.
What does this week’s data tell us about petrol prices in June 2025?
Up until the latest announcement, the data suggested a potential petrol price cut of between 13c and 19c per litre, and a larger diesel price drop of up to 59c per litre, depending on how trends held through to month-end.
However, the forecast has materially shifted following confirmation from Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana that the general fuel levy will increase on 4 June 2025:
- 16 cents per litre will be added to petrol
- 15 cents per litre will be added to diesel
This levy increase will take effect after the official monthly fuel price adjustment is implemented.
While it doesn’t change the over-recovery figures directly, it does increase the final price at the pump.
Revised forecast with the levy applied:
- Petrol: With a modest over-recovery of 14.659c/l (daily) and an average of ~18.7c/l, the anticipated drop would have been in the range of 15–19 cents per litre.
- With the 16c levy increase, this cancels out the recovery entirely. Petrol prices will either remain flat or increase slightly.
- Diesel: Diesel’s over-recovery remains relatively strong at ~58–59c/l (daily), which would have justified a price drop of similar magnitude.
- After deducting the 15c levy hike, a net decrease of around 43–44c/l for diesel is still likely, though reduced from original forecasts.
- Illuminating Paraffin:With no fuel levy increase applicable, the over-recovery of ~63c/l holds.
- A price decrease of around 60c per litre remains on the table.
Petrol prices in June are now unlikely to decrease, despite over-recovery data, due to the 16c levy increase negating any gains. Diesel prices will still likely decrease, but the size of the cut will be reduced by the 15c levy.
Paraffin remains unaffected by the levy and is expected to drop in price.
The fuel levy increase, while not part of CEF’s calculations, must now be factored into all consumer-facing forecasts. It has directly shifted petrol’s trajectory from a mild cut to a possible price increase, and has dampened the extent of savings diesel users would have expected in June.
What determines the price of petrol?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.
