South African motorists may still face fuel price increases in February 2025, but the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows signs of improvement compared to the previous week.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to fuel prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 5 February 2025. See the update below.
Latest fuel price outlook for February 2025
The under-recoveries for all major fuel types have decreased, suggesting that the anticipated price hikes could be less severe than initially feared.
This week’s under-recoveries:
- Petrol 95 ULP: 71.727 cents per litre (improved from 98.888 cents last week, a 27% reduction).
- Petrol 93 ULP & LRP: 77.827 cents per litre (improved from 105.066 cents, a 25.9% reduction).
- Diesel 0.05%: 74.678 cents per litre (improved from 159.167 cents, a 53.1% reduction).
- Diesel 0.005%: 66.627 cents per litre (improved from 151.922 cents, a 56.1% reduction).
- Illuminating Paraffin: 82.167 cents per litre (improved from 151.698 cents, a 45.8% reduction).
These improvements are largely due to stabilising international oil prices and a slightly stronger rand.
Here’s a closer look at the over/under-recovery rates, as of Tuesday, 4 February 2025:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 27/01/2025 | Adjustment on 20/01/2025 | Adjustment on 13/01/2025 | Adjustment on 06/01/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R0.82 | -R0.72 | -R0.99 | -R1.41 | -R0.67 |
| Petrol 93 | -R0.82 | -R0.78 | -R1.05 | -R1.50 | -R0.73 |
| Diesel 0.05% | -R1.05 | -R0.75 | -R1.59 | -R1.92 | -R0.69 |
| Diesel 0.005% | -R1.01 | -R0.67 | -R1.52 | -R1.83 | -R0.69 |
Key factors driving the price increases
Brent crude oil prices, which influence South Africa’s fuel import costs, are trading at $77.50 per barrel as of late January 2025.
This marks a slight decline from earlier highs of over $80 per barrel, easing some of the pressure on fuel prices.
Analysts suggest that oil prices may continue on a downward trend, targeting $76 to $78 per barrel in the near term, due to weaker demand concerns in major economies like China.
The South African rand has also shown modest improvement, averaging R18.58 per US dollar during the latest review period. A stronger rand reduces the cost of importing fuel, contributing to the improved under-recoveries reported by the CEF.
While the data points to potential price increases for February, the extent of these hikes may be less than initially expected:
- Petrol prices could rise by around 72c per litre, compared to earlier forecasts of nearly R1.
- Diesel prices may increase by about 74c per litre, a significant improvement from the previously projected R1.59 per litre.
- Illuminating paraffin users could see an increase of 82c per litre, slightly less than earlier estimates.
The easing pressure from global oil prices and the stabilising rand have helped moderate the situation, but motorists should still prepare for increases in fuel costs.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will confirm the final price adjustments at the end of January.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.
