The latest report from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel prices are experiencing over-recoveries, meaning fuel is currently priced higher than its calculated cost.
UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to fuel prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 3 April 2025.
Latest fuel price outlook for April 2025
Here’s a closer look at the over/under-recovery rates, as of Tuesday, 25 March 2025:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 25/03/2025 | Adjustment on 18/03/2025 | Adjustment on 11/03/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | +R0.72 | +R0.49 | +R0.73 | +R1.16 |
| Petrol 93 | +R0.58 | +R0.34 | +R0.59 | +R1.01 |
| Diesel 0.05% | +R0.84 | +R0.82 | +R1.06 | +R0.96 |
| Diesel 0.005% | +R0.86 | +R0.83 | +R1.10 | +R0.96 |
An over-recovery means consumers might see lower fuel prices in April if this trend holds.
These values represent a small decrease from last week’s over-recovery, suggesting that while a price drop is still likely, its extent will depend on further fluctuations.
What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in April 2025?
This week’s data continues the trend of potential price reductions in April, largely due to two key factors:
- Lower International Oil Prices
- As of Tuesday, 25 March 2025, Brent Crude is priced at $73.31 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude stands at $69.38 per barrel.
- While oil prices have seen a slight increase from the previous day, they remain relatively stable compared to earlier in the year, keeping fuel costs in check.
- Favourable Exchange Rate Movements
- The rand/dollar exchange rate sits at R18.1890 per dollar, slightly improving from earlier weeks.
- A stronger rand makes it cheaper for South Africa to import fuel, contributing to over-recoveries.
How does this compare to last week’s forecast?
- The average over-recoveries recorded in the past 30 days were higher than this week’s daily figures.
- This means while a price drop remains likely, the reduction might not be as steep as initially expected.
How accurate is the CEF data in determining the final fuel price?
The CEF’s daily reports are a strong indicator of where fuel prices might go but do not determine the final pump price alone.
Other factors also play a role, including:
- Government Taxes and Levies: Adjustments such as the General Fuel Levy (GFL) and Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy impact the final price.
- Retail Margins: Fuel station operators have their own pricing structures, which can slightly vary.
- Market Speculation: Sudden shifts in oil prices due to geopolitical events or supply concerns can affect fuel price adjustments in the final days before implementation.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.
