Loadshedding will continue to be suspended starting Monday, 24 June 2024, due to improved stability and reliability of Eskom’s generation coal fleet.
Loadshedding outlook for this week: Here’s what to expect
What is the Current State of the Power System?
Eskom has successfully maintained a suspension of loadshedding for 90 consecutive days. This stability is attributed to the ongoing improvements in the reliability of the generation coal fleet. The last extended suspension of loadshedding occurred between July 2021 and October 2021.
The current unplanned outages remain at an average of 12,000MW, which is significantly lower than the anticipated 15,500MW.
Eskom’s strategic use of its peaking stations, including Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), has played a crucial role in managing high electricity demand, particularly during morning and evening peaks.
The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has decreased to 27.4% in the current financial year, showing a 7.9% improvement compared to the previous year. This reduction in unplanned outages has been a significant factor in maintaining the suspension of loadshedding.
What is the Likelihood of Loadshedding This Week?
The likelihood of loadshedding remains low for the upcoming week. Eskom’s winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated potential unplanned outages at 15,500MW with loadshedding limited to Stage 2. However, current performance surpasses this forecast, maintaining an average of 12,000MW in unplanned outages.
The sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved to 61.2% from 54.0% over the same period last year. This improvement has been due to a decrease in unplanned outages, which averaged 11,800MW during the past seven days. Eskom’s diesel usage for OCGTs also remains below the published winter forecast and year-to-date budget.
Here’s the loadshedding schedule starting Monday, 24 June 2024
Here is the official loadshedding schedule:
| Date | 00:00 – 05:00 | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 |
| Mon 24 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Tues 25 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Wed 26 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Thurs 27 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Friday 28 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sat 29 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sun 30 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Readers from these metros can check the latest loadshedding schedule below:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
What is the average demand expected to be this week?
The expected average demand for electricity this week remains high due to colder winter temperatures. Eskom’s evening peak demand on Friday, 21 June 2024, was recorded at 29,275MW. The power utility continues to focus on managing morning and evening peaks through the strategic use of OCGTs and other peaking stations.
Eskom plans to return 2,796MW of generating capacity to service by Monday, 24 June 2024, which will further support the stability of the power system. The consistent improvement in the Energy Availability Factor and the reduction in unplanned outages are positive indicators for maintaining a stable electricity supply.
To prevent network overloading and potential load reduction, Eskom urges customers to reduce their consumption and ensure their electricity is legally connected. Illegal activities, including theft and unauthorized network operations, pose risks to the stability of the power system.
Eskom will provide an update on the power system’s status on Friday, 28 June 2024, or promptly communicate any significant changes as they occur.
